All Posts by Ed Downs

ATM on Servers

ATM is Now Running on Our Servers!Breaking News!   ATM Methods can now run on our OmniVest Servers.   A new ATM Method Upload feature has been developed that enables ATM Owners to upload their Methods directly to OmniVest under the Strategy Upload facility!   Now, you can develop profitable ATM Methods using any Strategies (including those we sell), and either (a) use the Method  in your own trading in OmniVest  and/or (b) charge a subscription fee to others… ATM Elite Traders Wanted!We want YOU to participate in our ATM Elite Traders initiative!  We are launching a special program today to recruit ATM Elite Traders for OmniVest.   If you already have a good ATM Method or are developing one, please let us know. ATM Elite Trader Survey.Once approved, you will be able to upload your ATM Method(s) directly into OmniVest to run on our servers.  As with any Elite Trader in OmniVest, you can charge a subscription for your Method. Some members make $thousands doing this.Licensing ATM Methods for OmniVest InstitutionalWe will evaluate the ATM Methods that are provided. As we identify an ATM Method we believe is likely to perform consistently over time, we will make an offer to license the Method for use in OmniVest Institutional, our specialized OmniVest Platform for Accredited Investors..ATM Method GuidelinesVirtually all ATM Methods can run on our servers.  However, certain things like only using Market on Open orders and removing any optimization within the method must be done before the Method can be uploaded.   OmniTrader will tell you what corrections you need to make, which it will do when you click Upload to Server.  Here are the printed guidelines: ATM Method Guidelines     How it Works1)   A new button in ATM allows users to upload the entire ATM Method to our Servers.  2)   The upload screen is very similar to “Upload Strategies” and can upload all Strategies used as well as all OmniLanguage code3)   The uploaded ATM Method appears as a “Strategy” in OmniVest, and also as a Portfolio if the option was checked.   Deploy as an Elite Trader Portfolio and establish what you want to charge! Take the Survey and sign up to be an ATM Elite Trader now! 

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Concurrent Market States Released

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing Concurrent Market States ReleasedConcurrent Market States (CMS) is a huge improvement to ATM.    The original design of ATM was oriented around testing market states in sequence to select one to trade.  Market States can be Bullish, Bearish, Neutral or any other kind of market. What Concurrent Market States adds is the ability to trade multiple market states at the same time.   With this feature, it’s possible to run different states on different groups. CMS facilitates two important trading ideas:1. Concurrent Industry Group Rotation2. Special Situations related to Market Behavior. For Industry Group Rotation, multiple states are defined under each Industry Group, and the first Market State to fire true within the Group is executed.  However, Market States in OTHER groups can fire at the same time (one market state per).   So, it’s possible to trade Oil Stocks when oil is going up, while at the same time trading Pharmaceutical Stocks if they are rallying.  And there can be as many groups as the user cares to define! For Special Situations, it’s possible to ALWAYS evaluate and trade certain Market States when they are true.  The classic example of this is purchasing inverse ETFs when the market fails in an IRA.  If the State is labelled as always active, it will trade whenever the general market is falling.Training Video by Jeff DrakeA new training video is now on the Videos page that explains how to use the Concurrent Market States feature.    We are working on examples now to post on Downloads, but the video will show ATM owners how to get their hands on the feature now and build their own ATM Methods using the CMS feature.Click here to watch the video.What’s Next?Right now, our team is working to release a solid CMS example.  We are ALSO testing the next major feature for ATM – Index Put Protection.  Watch for news on this exciting advancement soon! Insert Image

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The XZones ATM Method

XZones ATM MethodUnveiled at BASH 2018,  the XZones Method is a great trading approach that combines some of our best RTM Strategies to create a robust trading solution. Required Strategies*X-SuiteiZonesXLS-19 V2Z3XZones is showing 41.6% returns with just 12.6% draw downs in historical testing, 2006-2018.     Resources for ATM Owners:Downloads contains the installation file.Click here to watch the BASH 2018 presentation on the Strategies that make up XZones, as well as the method itself.* Don’t have some of the required Strategies?  Call Nirvana Sales at 800-880-0338 and tell them you are an ATM owner.  They will give you an ATM discount.

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ATM a Huge Hit at BASH 2018

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing ATM a Huge Hit at BASH 2018The annual Nirvana Club meeting, or “BASH” was held June 3-4 in Austin Texas.    This year several products were discussed, but none was more prominent than ATM.  Users unaminously agreed that ATM is the single most important advancement Nirvana has made in its entire history.Member PresentationsLarrie Cable and Mark Holstius gave presentations on their work with ATM.   Their talks will impress and excite you.  I’m publishing these two Nirvana Club meeting presentations here in the ATM blog – not something I normally do.  But they are truly specific to ATM and very appropriate to share here.The Path to Stress-Free Investingby Larrie G. CableLarrie Cable used ATM to research market states and ranking functions to create an amazing outcome in OmniFunds (21% return so far in 2018).  OmniFunds uses these concepts to switch between assets, so applying ATM to identify the best approach was a novel and frankly brilliant idea.   Click here for Larrie’s presentationcopyright (c) The Nirvana Club 2018ATM on Steroidsby Mark HolstiusMark continues to push the envelope with his advanced work using Concurrent Market States. Mark used large spreadsheets to high performing collections of Symbols, Strategies and Market States – a highly optimized process.   But the results he showed were not optimized, because he only showed Trade performance in the month AFTER the analysis.  That is, actual performance was in 100% out-of-sample data. Using this approach, he was able to show a 13% return in May.  Impressive.Click here for Mark’s presentationcopyright (c) The Nirvana Club 2018What’s New in ATMby Jeff DrakeJeff reviewed the advances in ATM leading up to the BASH, and especially  Concurrent Market States.  CMS allows for multiple Market States to fire simultaneously, which means an account can trade multiple industry groups or other situations, as opposed to just one (the original definition).    In a later session, Jeff unveiled his new XZones Method, for the X-Suite, T3 and XLS-19.  Results were impressive.    A blog post to follow this one will officially announce this method, which we are providing free to all ATM owners  (those who don’t own the Strategies can purchase them at a discount). Jeff also demonstrated the (not yet released) Index Option Protection feature.    Using this feature, the software will automatically purchase Puts on an Index (or Calls on an Inverse Index) to generate huge profits in the event of a market correction to offset account losses.    In our testing, this feature is actually sending accounts to equity highs on events like the one we saw in February.   This is something that will help our users sleep at night! As far as I know, NO other software provides a facility to easily add Index Option Protection to a portfolio or account. “Impromptu” Member SessionMembers share their excitement!On Monday, after Mark’s presentation “ATM on Steroids”, I asked members to come up and share their informal experiences.    What they said was quite impressive.  Here are just a few excerpts.  “My annual rate of return, running the System LIVE, has been 204% since January 1, with a max draw down of less than 10%” *  Don Patin “As I worked with ATM, I kept seeing better and better results.  My final equity curve balance was something like — 21.4 Billion.” *  Ben Madugu “If you don’t have ATM – Get it!  It has the greatest potential to improve your investment future than any other product I have come across.”*  Larrie G. CableClick here for the 9-Minute Video, including news about the latest features.The Trillion Dollar ClubIs Member Enthusiasm Justified?If you watch the above recording, you will be struck by members consistently claiming 100% returns and many-billion-dollar equity curves.   Everyone knows the potential for “curve fitting” when using optimization in technical analysis.   Someone suggested we start a Trillion Dollar Club for the first person to create an equity curve going to $1 Trillion! We had fun with that – and then someone actually did it  And yes, that was a curve-fit!    But what is so encouraging about these testimonials is the members’ impressive credentials.  *  Jeff Martin is a retired research scientist from Los Alamos Labs – a critical thinker and careful researcher.  *  Larrie Cable is a 30-year Navy veteran who also served as a test pilot and venture capitalist in a large private firm.  *  Others, like Perry Madich and Randal Higginbotham are long time customers and life-long traders who know what they are doing. As we run ATM  in 2018, we will get more feedback on how well the system holds up in real market conditions.   We  plan to hold a symposium on “How to get reproducible results with ATM” this summer  Ahead of that, all of us know the best way to avoid curve-fitting is to make sure we use a large sample size and reserve an out-of-sample period for validation.   That was precisely what both Mark and Larrie did. But two things really impressed me about these member comments in the impromptu session: 1) All are SUPER excited about ATM, having seen everything else before. 2) They are applying the tool in novel ways to get superior test results. We’ve just begun to really understand what is possible with the software.   Concurrent Market States open up the potential for even higher performance.  And then, there’s the application of ATM for automated Option Trading.   The future is very bright, my friends.  Very bright indeed. Sincerely,​

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Announcing: The Secret Weapon 2!

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing I am thrilled to announce the approach of ATM2 – our latest version of the Adaptive Trade Management System that builds upon the foundation that was released in February.ATM is all about Higher Returns with Less Risk! ATM is all about trading the right symbols, using the right Strategies, at the right time, based on what the market is doing.  The first version of ATM allowed us to do this on the symbols in a profile.    New features in ATM2 are FURTHER extending its lead in Automated Trading Technology.  But it’s not just for automatic trading – I’ll explain in a minute.Harnessing the Power of Group Rotation The primary improvement in ATM2 has to do with trading groups of Symbols with their own Market States, based on select Market Symbols.   The feature is called Symbol Lists and Concurrent Market States.  Consider just one group – the Oils.  Here is a chart of OIH, which is an Exchange Traded Fund that represents oil producers:OIH went up and down for 15 years, going almost nowhereThe Oil Producers, as a whole, made very little progress over 15 years, as shown in the chart above.  HOWEVER, letting ATM trade the individual stocks in this group created a much different outcome!* Historical Trading Simulation   ATM, Trading the Oil Stocks, made 26% per year!Want Higher Returns?  Just add more groups! Because these new Market States will be allowed to run concurrently, a trading account can become much more fully allocated (more invested)  by trading more groups, which means returns will be higher.   Then, there’s Index Put Protection…To reduce risk, we are adding a very important, advanced feature called  Index Put Protection.   The idea is to provide “insurance” for an account, such that if (and when) the market enters a correction, usually with a very high negative one-day move, appreciation of puts on an index symbol can counter the paper losses in the account.   This is demonstrated in the chart below…By purchasing Put Options on an Index, and account can be protected from sudden losses. The green line in this picture represents the “stair step” put protection concept.  When the market falls through, the Puts become valuable and counter the loss.The user can set ATM to automatically decide whether to take profits on the puts and stay invested, or get out altogether.By the Way…    ATM is NOT Just for Automatic Trading!Because ATM shows all trades in the Focus List (whether AutoTrade is being used or not), a user can simply be advised of trades identified by ATM, and then place them with discretion.  Complete Webinar Explaining ATM I recently published a Webinar Recording for prospective ATM users that covers the basis for ATM, as well as the new features that are coming in ATM2.    Click Here to view the Sales Webinar for ATM2 (html version, with chapters for easy navigation)also available:   mobile version  &   powerpointQuestions on ATM?  Contact us at 800-880-0338.Important Information: Futures, options and securities trading has risk of loss and may not be suitable for all persons. No Strategy can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading.

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Macro & Micro Method Released!

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing Macro & Micro Method Released!By Ed Downs (ATM method by Mark Holstius)I am thrilled to announce that Mark Holstius has graciously released his Macro & Micro method for our ATM users!Highest Results to Date!In a prior post, I showed preliminary results of Mark’s “Macro & Micro” method, with an average annual return of 70% in historical testing.  After some further refinements, he has been able to boost this to 83% with only a modest increase in average max draw down.   Ending equity – a good  indication of how well the method has tested over time – reached $656m, about DOUBLE what he achieved in the prior example.    I want to mention that Mark did not use any optimization when he created this method – just good instincts on Long/Short Balancing and his knowledge of Ranking Indicators.   Great job, Mark.Statistics From the 15-year test shown above…Using M&M:          Avg Ann ROI:   83,7%         Avg Max DD:  16.1%           Ratio:  5.2Without ATM:      Avg Ann ROI:  39.8%          Avg Max DD:  18.7%           Ratio:  2.1 The base statistics show that the M&M Method generates more than twice the Average Return:Draw Down ratios compared to running the same Strategies without ATM.   Mark has posted about the method the OmniTrader ATM Forum.  I suggest everyone read how he used the 2 types of Market States – “Macro” and “Micro” to achieve this result.   We both hope that other users will pick up the torch and advance the platform further from this example.Available for Download Now by ATM owners!Mark has provided both the profile and ATM files for ATM owners to download.  Click here to download the installation file, which will place the files in their directories. Files installed…Profile:      “ATM Macro & Micro”  (/Profiles)Method:   “ATM Macro & Micro”  (/ATM)What’s Next?We have a long list of enhancements planned for ATM, and I need to make another blog post on them!   High on the list is the Index Option Hedge feature.    But we are also implementing things like Market State-Specific Symbol Lists, which will enable Methods to (for example) trade inverse ETFs Long in a retirement account,  in a Bear Market State.   We believe we have just scratched the surface of what is possible with this new ATM technology.   And then, there’s OmniVest!

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Research Breakthrough: Macro & Micro States

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing Research BreakthroughBy Ed Downs (with research by Mark Holstius) Mark recently created an ATM method called “Micro States” which is available on the Downloads page for ATM users.   He just revealed a new way to further improve ATM results that he posted about in the OmniTrader Forum.  With Mark’s permission, I am sharing this idea today because of its significance.    Let’s start with some definitions… In the picture to the right, we see the Market States used in the Universal Method, which are indications of directional bias for an index symbol (like SPY).   We now will call these longer term measurements Macro States.   Micro States are very short term technical measurements applied to an index symbol (like SPY)  to determine when it is optimal to take new Long or Short trades based on the probability of short term movement direction. Mark began experimenting using Macro and Micro States together, resulting in a tremendous boost in performance.Market States used in the Universal MethodMarket States used in the Micro States method.We typically define 3 Market States –  a bullish, bearish, and default (neutral or slightly bullish) state.  If there are 3 short term (Micro) States and 3 long term (Macro) States then there are  9 combinations.We can use these combinations to increase allocation to take advantage of the high probability of movement that can exist with certain combinations, like “Bull-Bull” or “Bear-Bear”.  This is very similar to multiple time frame confirmation, since one state is longer term than the other.  Mark just posted the image shown to the right which illustrates the 9 combinations.  For each combination we create a new Market State composed of the Micro and Macro States by “ANDing” the conditions together.  For example, if our Long Term Bullish condition is “C > EMA(C,200)” and our Short Term Bullish condition is “C > EMA(C,21) then we would write the combination as: Bull-Bull Market State condition:C > EMA(C,200)  AND  C > EMA(C,21) These are not necessarily the formulas Mark is using, but it illustrates the idea.    By creating 9 Macro-Micro States, Mark has been able to achieve some fairly impressive results…9 Combinations of Macro + Micro Market States.The screen shot at the top of this shows a Portfolio Simulation using this concept.  From 2003 through 2017, equity grew from $100k to $323m, fueled by compounding an average annual return of 70%.   This is the highest result I have seen generated by any ATM method.    I want to thank Mark for continuing to push ATM to higher levels of performance and look forward to posting more of his work in this blog.

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Recent Advances on Micro States

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing Recent results generated using Mark Holstius’ ATM Micro States MethodIt’s hard to believe how far the Adaptive Trade Management System has come since its release just 2 months ago.  I don’t think anyone can dispute the claim that using combinations of Market State, Ranking, Filtering, Long/Short Balancing and Allocation applied to existing Nirvana Strategies can easily produce results 2-5 TIMES as high as those we have ever seen previously. The image on this blog is of Mark Holstius’ Micro States method performance.  I described the concept of Micro States in a webinar I held in early February – the idea being that we should be able to isolate specific short term moves in a market and target specific Strategies that work well with those moves. Mark took this concept and created his own indicators to measure Market States in short timeframe (Micro States) and produced the results shown above.  Keep in mind that the profile that comes with this method is just 300 very liquid stocks – nothing out of the ordinary, but also not the stocks of any index (lists like the Dow 30 or S&P 100 that have significant “survivor bias”). The thing I really appreciate about Mark is his willingness to share this method with all ATM owners – it’s available on our Downloads Page.  I have already of users applying this method in live market conditions.  One of them reports he is up 2.5% in just 3 days.   We have been improving ATM every week.  This week, we began testing options trading, using Options Trade Plans in OmniTrader.   I can promise some VERY exciting blog posts in the near future on this topic.   We are also implementing Index Option hedges in ATM, where the platform automatically hedges positions with index options to protect against a market correction.  It’s close at hand!”This is exactly what I’ve been waiting for!”John Leslie, a Nirvana customer who bought our first product wrote me saying,   “This is it! This is exactly what I’ve been waiting for! I’ve been with Nirvana for years – now it’s all coming together. I would characterize the new Adaptive Trade Management System as the Complete Solution. There simply isn’t anything in the marketplace that can maximize investment returns and manage risk like ATM.  I’m thrilled with this new tool for growing my portfolio. I can’t wait to see the system integrated into OmniVest along with the optional index put protection. Thanks for bringing this incredibly powerful system to serious investors. – John Leslie”In my opinion, ATM is the key to success ALL of us have been waiting for.  Trading Strategies applied in concert with market volatility and direction just makes sense. I think we are going to break new ground this year.  I would even go further to say that history is about to be made with this product.   Of course, it will eventually end up in OmniVest, which is a whole new story and blog post.  But right now, our users – including me! – are engaging this product in OmniTrader.   ATM has the potential to dramatically change our trading fortunes in 2018. I’m as excited as I have ever been about any of our products!  But all of them  – our Strategies, our Artificial Intelligence – all of them can be improved through the application of ATM.   

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Self-Driving Omni Traders

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing Self-Driving Omni TradersBy Ed Downs In the webinars I host, I often visit with people who have been “Omni Traders” as far back as 1994, when version 1 was first released. And many have written about their successes over the years, and that they always come back to OmniTrader. What is it about OmniTrader that makes it so unique among all the trading software out there? For me, it’s the continuous and relentless pursuit of automation. While Nirvana is the only trading software company dedicated to the “automated trading” mission, other industries have been adopting automation for decades. Automated systems are all around us. In the home, dishwashers and thermostats are automated. Cars have automatic braking systems, cruise control and vehicle proximity alerts. Every time a driver gets behind the wheel, he or she uses these systems to get from point A to point B without even thinking about it. Automatic driving intelligence, which has become known as “self-driving cars”, is a new layer of automation that operates on top of the other systems of the vehicle, capable of making decisions a driver would previously have made. In the same way, OmniTrader has many automated features that reduce work, automatically provide trading ideas, and help traders succeed. A few of the unique automated systems in OmniTrader include…​•Automatic Signal Generation using a Voting process•Automatic Back Testing and Incremental Optimization•Automatic Trade Management using Trade Plans•Automatic Chart Pattern Recognition•Automatic Option Trade SelectionThe Adaptive Trade Management System (ATM), by Omni Traders International, operates on top of this framework, and is like “self-driving technology” for OmniTrader. ATM automatically selects the best trades, and applies long/short balancing and allocation depending on the market environment. It can adjust total allocation to be more or less aggressive depending on market risk, and can “apply the brakes” and go to cash if the market becomes too volatile. Full Automation vs. Automatic AssistThe image in this blog is of the Guardian Angel autonomous vehicle system being adopted by Toyota, in which automation is combined with human intelligence. “Toyota sees big benefits from “guardian angel” autonomous driving: The driver is always in control until he or she messes up and a crash looms, and then the car takes over. Toyota will continue working on traditional, fully autonomous (Google- and Tesla-style) vehicles as well.”While ATM is capable of completely automating trades with a broker, it can also be run in manual mode, enabling the investor to select among the trades that ATM recommends. The user can also activate ATM to run under AutoTrade, but review and approve the trades each day before they are submitted. The ultimate goal of the ATM project is to add the technology into OmniVest, the automated trading platform built around Nirvana Strategies. The good news is, users can benefit from using the technology in OmniTrader now. The version created for OmniTrader will continue to be supported, because that is where new ATM ideas will be built and tested.Omni Traders International, LLC is pleased to provide licenses to ATM for OmniTrader users now, ahead of its adoption in OmniVest. The OmniVest version is expected to be completed before the Nirvana Club meeting in June 2018. We expect the ATM technology to continue to advance in 2018, both in terms of features of the software and the applications our users create with it. 

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Introducing ATM

Home Videos Downloads Blog Pricing Introducing ATM – “The Secret Weapon”By Ed Downs We are pleased to announce the release of the Adaptive Trade Management System, or ATM – a new feature for OmniTrader that dramatically improves the performance of any Profile by managing the trades generated by the Strategies in the Profile. ATM is built on 5 key concepts, Symbol Filtering, Signal Ranking, Strategy Selection, Long/Short Balancing and Trade Allocation – all under Market State controlMy January 8 webinar, “The Secret Weapon” explains how ATM is able to improve the performance of any Strategies.  Using ATM, we are consistently seeing results 2x higher than we have seen previously.   In this blog, I will keep users updated on ATM progress as it develops.  – Ed Downs

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