Ryan Olson | Nirvana Systems Inc.

All Posts by Ryan Olson

Friday, June 8, 2018 AGN

Friday, June 8, 2018 Happy Friday Traders! Over the last few days I have been looking deeper into our Chart Pattern Recognition Module (CPRM) and the fantastic tools available.  Much like you all, I sometimes forget how powerful some of our tools are and need to go back for a refresher. Today’s signal is the result of this… Before we get started if you are not familiar with the CPRM feel free to take a look.  I have linked the PDF below.  I am also working on a new informational page to give you more insight into the power of this wonderful tool.https://www.omnitrader.com/pdfs/CPRM6.pdf I have configured the CPRM to find both Support and Resistance and Trendline Breaks.  I want to keep the signal generation simple with good fundamentals.  Although CPRM can find over 200 different types of patterns, I will be using patterns that most traders are already familiar with. Below we have a chart on Allergain Inc. (AGN).  Although, CPRM generated about 10 great opportunies today I chose AGN because of the additional confirmation leading into this trade.  I will break down a few ideas and concepts that go along with patterns in general. OK, So the signal generated on AGN was by the CPS_TrendlineBreak strategy included in CPRM6.  This strategy looks to identify points on the chart where Trendlines have been established and prices have broken through the defined level.  You can see that from March to May we have a short term Trendline established off the top of a nice consolidation.GAPGaps indicate that a new trend is starting, accelerating, or is near its end.  In this case we are just now beginning to gain momentum coming off support and energy is beginning to build.  This tends to indicator we are going to be continuing to move in the direction of the gap.Resistance – ConsolidationThe GAP is testing the upper boundaries of the next confirmation we see, a consolidation.  This consolidation is a point in the chart where the market sees quite a bit of in decision and a battle between the bulls and bears is ensuing.Double BottomThe most powerful confirmation we see for this signal is the very elusive double bottom.  This pattern is a tell-tell sign that there is an upcoming shift or a move has come to an end.  This is one of my favorite patterns as profits tend to be very high when you see this type of pattern.Conclusion:  The signal generated was very strong on its own accord but with all of the additional confirmation leading into this trade is why I have chosen this for the daily signal.  This trade has both short term and long term implications. Short term profits will sit near the $190 Range.  This is a very good target, however, if you are looking for long term gains and don’t mind holding on for a bit you are looking over $250 which was long term resistance. Well that’s it until Monday. Like this trade? Hate this trade?  Let me know your thoughts.  rolson@nirvsys.com The products and demonstrations listed on this blog are not recommendations to buy or sell, but rather guidelines to interpreting their respective analysis methods. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risks inherent in trading. Nirvana Systems shall have no liability for any investment decisions based on the use of their software, any trading strategies or any information provided through other services such as seminars, webinars, or content.

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Wednesday April 25, 2018

Happy Wednesday   Today we are going to be looking at Bank of Montreal (BMO) which is presenting a fantastic setup. BMO has been trading lower since mid January. Over the last 2 months we have seen the formation of a very nice descending pennant.   This type of trading pattern offers tends to offer a breakout move to the downside. As the price begins to test and breaks support you there is a good chance that we could see the price drop from the mid $75 to the low $70’s. Although this pattern tends to be high probability you will want to watch for the potential of a quick move to the upside where price may move towards $80. The products and demonstrations listed on this website are not recommendations to buy or sell, but rather guidelines to interpreting their respective analysis methods. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risks inherent in trading. Nirvana Systems shall have no liability for any investment decisions based on the use of their software, any trading strategies or any information provided through other services such as seminars, webinars, or content.

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Monday March 5, 2018

Happy Monday – We have some good opportunities to start this week off.  Of course there is quite a bit of turbulence in the markets right now.  The choices for Monday are not likely to be overly effected by current news.   SPG – Simon Property Group Simon Property Group has been in a substantive bear move since Q3 2016.  We have seen throughout 2017 a very nice consolidation between $150 and $175.  We are currently testing support in the mid $150’s but over the next month we can are likely to see a sharp move back to consolidation highs.  This will be a stock you just might want to keep an eye on as SPG offers a huge potential upside with very little risk of another move pushing lower.   TGT – Target Target is a very excited opportunity.  We have both a potential long and short.  We have just tested resistance at about $78.50 and began to pull back.  Applying the Fibonacci Retracement you can see we have the 38% level well within reach.  If we begin to show the weakness I am going to target $65 as profit.  However, if we start to show continued strength from the current zone we will be looking at $85 as our long target.  

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Happy Tuesday folks – After a brief hiatus we are back and better than ever. We have some great setups confirmed by some great signals. We also have new promotion with OmniTrader Xpress where we provide you software and data free of charge. This is the perfect time for you to share trading with your friends and family at with no risk. You can sign up today by clicking here. OmniTrader Xpress Free Download. On to the trades… REGN has recently tested a two year support level in the low $340’s. Over the last two months we have seen strength and some additional confirmation first from the Reversal Strategy and then confirmed by the Trending Strategy earlier this month. Overall trend seems to be showing strength. This has some real potential to reach the mid to high 400’s over the next few months. DLR – Digital Realty Trust DLR is currently testing a very exciting zone.  As you can see from the chart we have shown weakness over the last quarter and have begun to test some very important Fibonacci levels.  We have seen a little bounce off the 50% but overall weakness will likely prevail as we start o look at mid $90’s as a potential target. See you all after the market for tomorrows picks. Ryan

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Fibonacci Retracement GOOGL

October 23 2017 Happy Monday Everybody!  Today we have one of the FANG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix,Google) that has set up a fantastic trading opportunity.  Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) has formed a very nice trading range 920-1010 over the last 6 months.  Over the last few trading sessions we have seen GOOGL pull back after testing resistance and start moving back towards the 50% retracement (currently 25%).  Although right now isn’t the perfect time to jump on board we have a few key levels to watch for which could pay off BIG!  Your first key zone will be around $960 which you will start to see some push and tug.  Watch for a potential pull back fake which could provide a timely entry. The products and demonstrations listed on this website are not recommendations to buy or sell, but rather guidelines to interpreting their respective analysis methods. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risks inherent in trading. Nirvana Systems shall have no liability for any investment decisions based on the use of their software, any trading strategies or any information provided through other services such as seminars, webinars, or content included in the SignalWatch website.

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3 reasons the Expectancy Will Improve Your Trading

A Lesson in Expectancy. 3 reasons the Expectancy Will Improve Your Trading Right now, you may be pondering, “Just what exactly is Expectancy and why should I care about it?  How will it help me?”  Great questions both.  Before we dive into detail on Expectancy, let’s look at the underlying theory behind it. Twenty-five years ago, Ed Downs published The Personality of Markets Theory  (which you can read here)  which  stated that “charts have personalities” and that “technical methods that have worked on a given chart are likely to continue to work in the future on the same chart.” Ed’s theory was put to the test when of our most innovative customers; Mark Holstius diligently worked to prove this theory. It works! The idea was that by using prior signals generated by a given strategy, we could create a probability of success of the next signal.   For example, if 2 out of the last 3 signals were profitable, the probability of the next signal being a winner was increased. Throughout Mark’s tests he found that this technique produced considerably more WINNERS than the any Strategy alone. “The Accuracy and Profitability of the Next Trade can be predicted by the trades that occurred ahead of it.” – M. Holstius Understanding the process and now having data to support the theory, we developed a way to automate this process.  The discovery of Expectancy came late in the OT 2017 development cycle but was such an important improvement that we decided to add it as a core feature in OT 2017 and make it available for all. Now that you know the general theory behind Expectancy, we can discuss how it will help improve all of your trading results.   Only take trades from the hottest strategy / symbol pair Through my own use, one of the most useful aspects of the new Expectancy Feature has been the ability to show only trades from the hottest strategy/symbol pairs.  This allows signals to be displayed on stock/strategy combinations that are currently favorable.  The reason this is so powerful is that the personality of the stocks WILL CHANGE and what was working yesterday, last week or last month might not be the case today.  Knowing the correct combination to use will be imperative to your success. Get the trades that have the highest potential for big profits Depending on strategies that you’re currently using, you are likely finding yourself caught in the middle of not enough signals or too many signals.  It’s hard to choose which one to trade.  The expectancy feature helps resolve both issues by allowing you to add the block to any strategy. Expectancy allows each strategy to show only signals that are currently favorable for each stock.  This allows you to have more strategies working on multiple market personalities.  Expectancy shows you fewer and more favorable signals that make it to the vote line making your life easier by knowing exactly what to trade. Improves the results of most strategies (especially RTM) The primary reason why Expectancy will help improve your trading is the fact that it improves the results of almost any strategy.  As with most people, almost every strategy is looking for different but prime setups.  Finding trades that way makes perfect sense but traders are left out of the market until that one specific setup shows itself. This is where Expectancy can step in to help fill the rest of the void.  You can apply Expectancy to a wide range of strategies looking for multitudes of different types of setups without being overwhelmed with too many signals.  Expectancy only allows signals that have passed the filter of proof of prior success on any given symbol. The New Expectancy Feature is a free addition to OmniTrader 2017, if you haven’t upgraded yet you can do so here or you can get the OT2017 Special Package here.

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Personality of Markets Theory

Personality of Markets Theory. The Personality of Markets Theory basically states that individual securities exhibit individual personalities. If you can pinpoint a security’s personality, and apply the right trading system for that personality, you can more accurately predict its next move and make more money. The easiest way to see how the Personality of Markets theory works is by looking at the futures market. Futures personalities are much more consistent because they are often based on supply and demand. If you look at a chart for live hogs, you will see that there is a lot of volatility, with wild swings between high and low points. That’s the nature of the hog market — its personality. At the other extreme is the currency market. Here, you see long, steady trends. There aren’t a lot of surprises in this market. Its personality is stable, even boring. The two most common types of market personalities are trending personalities, as seen in the currency market, and trading range personalities, as seen in the live hog market. Gapping personalities are also found in volatile stocks. So, what causes these different personalities to develop? Price moves occur because of what people do. And, human nature says that people tend to be rather predictable. Furthermore, the same people make up a large portion of the market. So, the traders who liked a stock last week and are selling it this week, will probably like it again next week. Again, human nature says that once you’ve traded a security and either made a good move, or missed a move, you will look for another opportunity to try again. Also, different types of people are attracted to different types of securities. Technical analysis is the art of measuring these repeating patterns of human behavior in order to predict future behavior and the resulting price action. By looking at the past behavior of the market, traders have observed certain patterns and created trading systems based on those patterns. You can use these systems to predict what will happen next in the market or in a particular security. The problem is that there have been hundreds of trading systems developed; all of which work well as long as the market is exhibiting the personality for which the system was designed. So, what’s a trader to do? Ten years ago, when I founded Nirvana Systems, Inc. that was the question that challenged me. I answered it with OmniTrader. Nirvana Systems released the first version of OmniTrader in 1994 and we released Version 3.1 in September 1997. OmniTrader, the only completely automated technical analysis software program, isolates the personalities of individual securities, then generates buy and sell signals based on that information. There are 120 proven trading systems built-in to OmniTrader. OmniTrader isolates personality by testing every system against the securities you select, over a back test period (typically one year). Let’s say five of those systems proved profitable over the test period. The likelihood of one of those systems producing a profitable signal tomorrow is very high. That doesn’t mean that you’ll only use those five systems from now on, however. The key to OmniTrader is that you’re looking at a relatively short trading period. Because OmniTrader works so fast, you can easily retest the security or securities on a daily or weekly basis for new buy and sell signals. The next step for the profitable trader is to look at the security’s chart to see if the personality of the backtest period is similar to what is being exhibited today. This is very easy to recognize. If a security has been in a trading range personality for months, the buy or sell signal is based on that personality. If the security has recently taken off on an upward trend, it is now exhibiting a different personality. The stock is obviously violating its backtest period and you should not trust the signal. It’s important to note that OmniTrader is not a new “trading system.” It’s best to think of it as a completely automated “opportunity generator.” You don’t need to tweak it or tune it. Just select the securities you want to test, let OmniTrader run, then look at the resulting signals on the Focus List. Verify the personalities of the most promising securities by looking at the charts. The whole process takes just minutes a day. When traders combine OmniTrader capabilities with their own strategies and skill, the results can be very impressive. Our users typically report that over 70% of their trades are accurate using OmniTrader. Many report even greater results.  

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Creating the Ultimate Indicator Connors RSI

Creating the “Ultimate” Indicator. The new Connors RSI Strategy Suite is based around the concept of “blending” indicators together as published by analyst Larry Connors in his book Connors RSI 2nd Edition. In this book, Connors shows how he used the average of three different indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), in order to create a “score”. This blended indicator score has been shown to outperform the base RSI. Here’s how it works: Connors RSI Calculation The first component of the Connors RSI is the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI) itself. This indicator is also commonly referred to as Wilder’s RSI. The RSI can return a value of 0 to 100. Connors uses a default value of 3 Periods for his RSI Calculation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) Plotted on ALLE The second component of the Connors RSI is called the “streak”. This basically determines a numerical value based on the relationship of close price values. Positive numbers indicate an upward streak, and negative numbers indicator a downward streak. Here is an example as explained by Connors: “The closing price on Day 2 is higher than on Day 1, so we have a one-day up streak. On Day 3, the price closes higher again, so we have a two-day up streak, i.e. the Streak Duration value is 2. On Day 4, the closing price falls, giving us a one-day down streak. The Streak Duration value is negative (-1) because the price movement is down, not up. The downward trend continues on Days 5 and 6, which our Streak Duration reflects with values of -2 and -3. On Day 7 the closing price is unchanged, so the Streak Duration is set to 0 indicating neither an up close nor a down close. Finally, on Day 8 the closing price rises again, bringing the Streak Duration value back to 1.” Once the streak duration values have been determined, the RSI is applied to the streak, similar to applying RSI to price values. Connors uses a 2 period RSI by default in order to evaluate the streak. The third component of the Connors RSI is to look at the size of the current day’s price change relative to previous price changes. This calculation is referred to as “Percent Rank”, or percentile. This tells us the percentage of values in the look-back period that are less than the current value. So the Percent Rank is the number of values in the look back period that are less than the current value, divided by the total number of values. Again, here is an example as explained by Conners: “For example, if the look-back period is 20 days, then we would compare today’s 2.0% return to the one-day returns from each of the previous 20 days. Let’s assume that three of those values are less than 2.0%. We would calculate Percent Rank as: Percent Rank = 3 / 20 = 0.15 = 15%” Connors uses a default look back period of 100 bars for his Percent Rank calculation. Now that we have all three components of the Connors RSI defined, the final calculation is to determine the average value of the three components. So we simply divide the sum of the value of the three components by three in order to arrive at the value of the Connors RSI indicator. The Advantage of the Connors RSI The main advantage of the Connors RSI indicator is that we are using the base RSI and two filters in order to arrive at one score. Once again, here is an explanation as provided by Larry Connors: “When we use multiple indicators to generate an entry or exit signal, we typically set a target value for each one. The signal will only be considered valid when all the indicators exceed the target value. However, by using an average of the three component indicators, ConnorsRSI produces a blending effect that allows a strong value from one indicator to compensate for a slightly weaker value from another component. A simple example will help to clarify this. Let’s assume that Trader A and Trader B have agreed that each of the following indicator values identify an oversold condition: · RSI(Close,3) < 15 · RSI(Streak,2) < 10 · PercentRank(100) < 20 Trader A decides to take trades only when all three conditions are true. Trader B decides to use ConnorsRSI to generate her entry signal, and uses a value of (15 + 10 + 20) / 3 = 15 as the limit. Now assume we have a stock that displays the following values today: · RSI(Close,3) = 10 · RSI(Streak,2) = 8 · PercentRank(100) = 21 · ConnorsRSI = (10 + 8 + 21) / 3 = 13 Trader A will not take the trade, because one of the indicators does not meet his entry criteria. However, Trader B will take this trade, because the two low RSI values make up for the slightly high PercentRank value. Since all three indicators are attempting to measure the same thing (overbought/oversold condition of the stock) by different mechanisms, it makes intuitive sense to take this “majority rules” approach.” Our research on this approach did showed the Connors RSI was much more profitable than the basic RSI. Armed with this information, we created the Connors RSI Strategy Suite, and we decided to expand the scope of the Connors RSI even further by applying the same concept to the classic stochastic indicator as well as the Williams % R indicator. You can learn more about the Connors RSI Strategy Suite here.

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How Artificial Intelligence Revolutionized Trading

  We are in an incredible time in trading history. Personal computers have become more powerful allowing advanced algorithms to process and analyze massive amounts of data. The inclusion of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) into trading has exploded – allowing traders and trading companies to create systems and strategies that many only dreamed about just a few years ago. The availability of new computer technology provided us the ability to scan and analyze chart patterns and conditions in charts that would have been nearly impossible for traders to recognize. At Nirvana Systems we are making progress in the effort to build trading strategies that employ Artificial Intelligence.  In our 15 year journey towards the UTM (Ultimate Trading Machine) goal, we have made major strides our A.I.  The results we have achieved have surpassed what many people who have devoted their lives to in trading would have thought possible. Now we have the opportunity to help our club members use these breakthroughs to achieve their goals. Nirvana is proud to announce an all NEW release of our ARM (Adaptive Reasoning Model) technology to our Nirvana Club members.  ARM5 allows traders to tackle some of the most challenging trading problems they face. This new ARM5 technology has already been used to create some exciting new strategies showing 85% accuracy with 3% profit per trade with out-of-sample data.  This means we have seen 85% accuracy on blind data, not back test. Imagine what life would look like if you were trading any market with 85% accuracy… I am including this 30 minute video to show how we use A.I. to advance our trading strategies. After the video take a few minutes to check out what the Nirvana Club has to offer and how we can help improve your trading success. Click Here to Watch.

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