welcome to the inner circle

To Our Very Special Guest! 

On behalf of all of us here, I want to say, “Welcome to the Inner Circle!”  We quickly closed out the group and are now preparing for first launch.   We really appreciate your coming on board ahead of Launch.  I can assure you, it’s going to be quite a ride.  

This week, you can expect to receive the following: 

• An overview of Collective 2 (“C2”) and How it Works. 
• How to set up your C2 account. 
• How to connect your broker account to our Trade Streams coming from C2.

As I have more information on the development of the Trade Throttle process, I will share it with you.   Today, we ironed out the last few issues connecting to brokerage internally, so that’s looking good.   As I mentioned, we have already tested C2, so we are good to go there as well. 

Right now, I am specifically working on Filters that can isolate the best-trading symbols, and will be integrating “variable allocation” as soon as our programmer finishes it.  With that feature,  the Throttle can trade lower-priced stocks, which is important because they are more volatile. 

I have also started preparations to engage a second Throttle Operator, who will be trading a different list.  I firmly believe that the best way to control risk is to diversify and “watch the money” which is precisely what the Trade Throttle facilitates.    

This is the most exciting project I have ever been involved with.  The outcome has the potential to benefit almost every other area of what we do.  Your Inner Circle membership has given us the most valuable commodity of all – the time to focus on, and execute this plan, and I just want to say “Thank you” for coming along with us on this journey. 

Sincerely, 

 Ed Downs    

Welcome

We are excited to have you as a valued member of The Inner Circle! This document will help you quickly establish your account on Collective 2 so you can monitor IC Throttle One in Real Time as it is used to trade the market. When you are ready, you can engage Collective 2’s AutoTrade function to send the trades generated by IC Throttle One to a live brokerage account. The last page lists contacts should you need additional help.

news and information

Basically, I am using the Throttle Indicator to find entries, and managing exits and re-entries with Trend Break Lines. The trade I show just closed out with a +2.5% gain. 

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

I have also been doing some manual throttle trading Friday, Monday and today, but the automation can do a better job than I can.  I will post here as soon as I re-deploy.  

I am placing throttle trades as I see cases in the market that warrant it, but obviously, they won't be as consistent as what the automation can provide. Late this morning while I was working on a Trade Plan I glanced at VT and saw this monstrous bar, 100% RED on the Leading Indicator!  I made money but was late to the party.  I'll keep going on the automation and let you know.

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

Throttle One Breakthrough!
February 1, 2023

Dear Inner Circle Member,

If you watched my webinar from last Thursday, you know I was able to get a very good simulation over about 4 days using the Trade Throttle. I hit a few problems with my setup when I tried to run longer simulations, but after fixing them yesterday, I got the curve you see here for all of January.

Bottom line: I think we are finally there!  I have asked my Team to reset Throttle One, and plan to start trading it into C2 tomorrow.  It's new, so I suggest watching it a little while before engaging it.  I'm trading leveraged ETFs (SQQQ and TQQQ) so we will have to see how liquidity holds up.   To address that potential issue, I will be testing it trading stocks next.    

I see more room for improvement but I am satisfied enough with these results to deploy it.  My sincere thanks go to all of you for your patience as I have worked on this over the past year.  There may be a Winter Storm raging here in Austin, but I'm a happy man today.

I'd like to add a  few notes about the TRADEnosis project...  The Team is moving really fast on this prime objective here at Nirvana.  I'd even say it's Warp Speed.  Steve just implemented something like an Advisor Rating on the A.I. Signals, so the best ones can be allowed to trade.  In just a few days, we expect to be testing it in OmniTrader.  Steve and our developers are easily running at Warp 9!  

We have been providing licenses for early adopters at the TRADEnosis web site to raise funds so we can keep The Team focused on this important Cloud A.I. mission.  Any Inner Circle member who takes us up on it will gain access to the TRADEnosis Stream in C2 when it's released, which is currently expected to happen some time in the next 2 weeks (plus an Extra Seat to trade it).

I will keep you informed as we continue to continue to advance these and our other automated trading projects.

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

In the webinar, I share some special insights into Trade Throttle development and Steve Mayos' expertise in creating TRADEnosis.  

The webinar only lasts 35 minutes, but the following Q&A session was a great exchange with members and worth the time to listen to.   As I indicate in the webinar, I am ready to publish the Throttle trading live this Monday and will keep you informed as we move forward.

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

First, I show how I simplified Throttle One, configuring it to engage the market on the larger moves.  Then, I review the other Strategies we have had deployed in C2, including notes about improvements that are being made to each.

Then, I include a very special presentation on Dynamic Equities by Jeff Drake.  The really good news is that Jeff has discovered several ways to make it more robust and risk-tolerant, which is important in current market conditions.  I know you will enjoy learning about it.

Finally, I talk about what we are focused on going into 2023, starting with the deployment and monitoring of Dynamic Equities 2, Throttle One, and other important Strategy work.  I want to wish all of you the best New Year’s and look forward to working with you in 2023.

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

I am engaging the market with Throttle One. The good news (aside from the Fed Meeting trade last week) is my Gains have generally been larger than my losses. However, I learned a valuable lesson this morning about trading into Collective 2...

Last night, just after the close, I attempted to execute a Long Throttle Trade on TQQQ. I hadn't done that before, but these ETFs trade after the Close and the movement was there. VisualTrader entered the trade just fine, but when I brought up C2, it wasn't there. I figured it was a "glitch" so I closed the trade in VT and called it a day.

What I didn't know was that C2 had entered a market order to Buy TQQQ that would be executed at the Open. So, when I fired up VT this morning, I saw that I was Long TQQQ in C2, which was down over $700 in the weak market. Of course, I closed it immediately (in C2). I've already recovered some of the loss. But lesson learned. I am now making sure I verify not only the trades, but also whether any orders are live in C2.

As you can tell from the video, I am excited about the results I am seeing using the new indicators. I will keep you updated as progress continues!

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

Since my last post, I have been monitoring the Throttle for a strong move, which of course came Wednesday. In the video I discuss some other observations that I am incorporating. We are getting there! Have a great rest of the week.

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

The webinar itself is only 30 minutes long, and the Q&A afterwards was really great, as many Members were present in the meeting. Additional news will be made available to IC Members as the Throttle is deployed in live trading. Thanks for watching, and have a great and restful Thanksgiving!

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

I was unaware it was required, until I discovered that my account missed the NQ trade that was made in the big rally last Thursday. I mentioned this in my video, but I now know it was a C2 setting I had to change, not an IB issue. Hopefully helpful...

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

Most of the update is about Dynamic Equities - our newest Strategy and the one we are most focused on right now. I've been trading it in my IRA, which I show in the update. I also provide some insights into my Trade Throttle work. In the course of developing this proprietary approach to day trading, I created a new Indicator that does a superb job of signaling that a breakout move on an individual stock has begun. I am testing it now with the goal of providing a Report/Update by Monday, and ideally, deploying it in C2.

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

With the market pushed even further down the past few weeks, we were in need of a product to promote to our customer base. So we took this concept and improved it to create "Dynamic Equities" - a Trade Stream that incorporates all the best ideas we have for investing in equities, and especially in retirement accounts. This is the next Strategy we are deploying for our The Inner Circle members, with Monday as the target release date.

I embedded my "commercial" for Dynamic Equities in the blog video so you can see what it does and what sets it apart. In case you want to share it with friends and acquaintances, I am including a link to the YouTube commercial video below. But just to be clear - Dynamic Equities is going into the Inner Circle (like all such products we create) so you will have access to it as part of your Inner Circle Membership. As you can tell from the video, I'm really excited about it!

In the update video, I also discuss what we are doing with Futures, and my recent work on the Trade Throttle. Yes, it's very much in play! I am targeting the end of this next week for an update on it; watch the video for details. I just want to end today's post by saying Thanks again for all your support. Have a great weekend!

Sincerely, 
Ed Downs

Ed's YouTube Commercial on Dynamic Equities.

implementing an investing Strategy, which would have the benefits of fewer transaction costs and larger moves on each symbol. But that overnight risk held us back.

Then, Jeff began testing the concept of a Dynamic Hedge, which uses NQ Futures to hedge risk - any time - day or night. This concept is simply beautiful, folks. In tonight's video, I explore how Jeff built it, and what the initial performance looks like. Prepare for an upside surprise!

I also talk about how this work is positively impacting the Throttle One project. So enjoy, and have a great weekend - we will let you know when the NEW Dynamic Stocks Strategy has been deployed, early next week!

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

Trade Throttle Breakthrough

My first news is about the Throttle work I have been doing since my last update.  The “breakthrough” has to do with finding an indicator combination that appears to accurately identify the big moves, which is what we want to trade.  You will see a simulation I ran over Tuesday’s market, where I share how I am translating this to create and test the Trade Throttle Automation.
  
New Strategy:  IC RT Nasdaq

After recruiting Jeff about a month ago to help with Throttle Development, he decided to apply some of the principles to develop a Real Time Equities Strategy in OmniTrader.  The result is IC RT Nasdaq, a new Strategy we have now deployed in The Inner Circle.   The first day was up! I will make sure Angela sends out the link to it early tomorrow.

My next update will be on my progress deploying the Trade Throttle in The Inner Circle.  The Strategy is ready to go on the page;  my next task is to apply the indicators I developed to create the Throttle Automation.  Expect me to cover that in my next update. Clearly, my goal is to deploy Throttle One!

Ed Downs

One of the big challenges in trading "market consensus" is the potential for a losing Throttle trade to give back a good portion of equity if the market turns sharply against us. To counter this, I asked our developer to create an "Equity Curve Indicator", so I could close all trades from the Throttle under program control when this occurs. Other changes made at the same time invoked a fairly involved Q.A. cycle, but the good news is it's all working properly now, and I am seeing improved results.

Perhaps the biggest issue I have encountered developing Throttle One is that automated runs are very time consuming, with each Simulation taking about 30 minutes. In order to accelerate our progress, I recruited Jeff Drake to apply his knowledge of Strategies and Trade Plans to the Throttle application. That was a good move - in about a week, he was able to get the Simulation shown here.

Another feature that was just added is the ability to run Simulations in the past, which is important because the market is always changing. Up to now, we have only been able to run on the most recent 2,000 bars (about a month in 5 minutes). With this improvement, we can Simulate any month in the past, and aggregate the performance.

I appreciate the great work Jeff has done to create the Futures, Equities, and Options Strategies that have been deployed in the Inner Circle. At this point, completing and deploying Throttle One is the highest priority project in the Company. When I announce its release, I will host a webinar to review the many discoveries that have gone into this one-of-kind technology. While the project has taken much longer than I expected, I know it's going to be worth the effort.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

Both IC RTY Breakouts and IC ES Trend Trades have been trading live since last week, and some important adjustments have been made resulting in less capital required to trade them. Requirements had to be increased on other futures Strategies (like CL) because we are now "scaling out" which requires the use of multiple contracts. But Jeff worked out a way to trade these new Index Futures Strategies with fewer contracts.

I also did considerable work last week and over the weekend on Throttle One. I am testing a new Trade Plan concept that uses the new Equity Curve Indicator that our developer, Cose, added for me. Looking good. I hope to have more definitive news in my next update this week.

The new ES and RTY Strategies are expected to be deployed tomorrow or Wednesday.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

With so many Strategies and all the changes, we have received requests for notes or information explaining what the Strategies do and how they should be traded, including recommended capital, number of contracts, and so on.

We have now updated the Active Strategies tab to contain this information. In addition to Throttle One, we have a few pending Strategies based on the Russell (RTY), S&P 500 eMini (ES) and Equity Breakouts (formerly "FAANG"). We will keep you updated here but that tab will now have more detailed information on all our currently Active Strategies.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

In addition, I have some breaking news on the new Strategies that Jeff has been working on using his new Trade Plan approach. It’s truly ingenious and in the update I explain exactly how it is able to improve profits and reduce draw downs. I also include some curves based on the new index Futures Strategies that Jeff developed using this approach. And that is actually the most exciting part of the update because the return to draw down ratios are so high. As I indicated in the update, I will let you know when they have been deployed to Collective 2. Thanks again and my next update will come out soon!

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

using Puts on QQQ to trade the Short Side of the market. The news is: I have a new Leading Indicator that is very good at predicting continuous directional movement, which is enabling me to catch longer moves. The video shows a live QQQ Put trade from start to finish. This will become a Strategy that trades down markets this way, based on the Leading Indicator and other chart clues I talk about. My 2nd video on Jeff's work will be out later today.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

I just made a 4-Minute video that I am attaching to this post on the web site. I was excited to see the MS+VT combination generate over 1/2% in fully-automatic trading on a flat market.  This first test was Long Only. I need to run additional tests that incorporate market direction into the trading decisions and then potentially add options.

I think this has HUGE potential. I will continue working on Throttle One, but this approach has a larger universe to trade, and thus may be more productive. It looks like MarketScans feeding the Throttle has the potential to make steady, daily gains. I will continue running these tests a few more days, with the goal of then adding this new trade stream to C2 for our Inner Circle Members. I'll also continue to keep you updated on all our trading initiatives.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

would not be able to develop and deploy. It's a vigorous process for us because it has to be. In addition to fulfilling our promise to Members, we are ourselves dependent on the trading profits we can generate. These updates are designed to share what is happening and how we are advancing the ball in Futures, Equities and Option trading.
Again, welcome aboard.

I would say our most intense focus, aside from the Trade Throttle, has been on futures and CL in particular. Crude oil quickly made 30% after launch but over the last month has not advanced. Rather than just continue to watch it trade, we decided to look at what's happening in order to move to the next level. In this update, I share recent CL Strategy advances Jeff has made that are truly exciting. The new version, showing an incredibly smooth equity curve, is expected to be deployed next week.

Our Option Income 2 Strategy has been surprisingly effective. Its only drawback is it can't be traded in a retirement account. But a Margin account would be up 10% since it was released less than a month ago. And in terms of retirement account support, that is a primary focus I have in my Trade Throttle work.

I continue to work on the Trade Throttle problem and have made great progress trading the moves, while avoiding the sideways markets. In the update, I show a recent equity curve that shows this kind of trading. It's been a difficult problem to solve, but every new experiment gets us closer.

At the end of the video, I show a related project we just embarked on that has the ability to trade breakouts across the entire market using the power of MarketScans. It just makes sense to find and trade the stocks that are moving - when they move in Real Time. I think you'll be excited about it.

I will continue to keep you informed. Thanks again for being a valuable part of the journey.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

In this post, you can see my current "test bed" for Trade Throttle runs. It has plots for the Leading Indicator (red, green), a Separation indicator, and DMI. I am finding this combination is very reliable for directional Throttle Trades. By looking at longer term Separation, it is able to maintain trend direction in small whipsaws, which means less trading. I will share the results after running a few more tests.

You may recall that several weeks ago we changed the Crude Oil Strategy per the video I made with Jeff - taking quicker profits and holding stops tighter. This was done to reduce draw downs. And, it did that, but it also reduced profits. During this time, we noticed a phenomenon that we call "whale trades".

For example, near Tuesday's stock market open, Crude Oil dropped below $100 - which made headlines. Our Strategy shorted it and took quick profits, only to watch CL go much, much lower. So we are working on multiple Strategies that run in parallel, each designed to trade a specific setup. There is so much to be made in this market that this is taking a large part of our focus right now.

We also have another test running on Anchored VWAP in a private channel. It's done well in its first week, but it is 100% discretionary. We plan to release it to the Inner Circle if it continues to perform. More about that later. As I say, over the next several days, I plan to publish a video update on my Throttle work and any additional advancements we make during this time. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

I also explain the new feature that was just implemented for the Trade Throttle, though it's actually a VisualTrader improvement. With the new Account Equity Indicator, I am able to "see" (in code) when a throttle move is starting to wane, so profits can be preserved at that point. As explained in the video, this is enabling me to have looser stops on the Strategies for the individual stock trades, but be able to react when the account as a whole is giving back gains. I have just started working with this but I think it could be the last "missing link."

Finally, I also discuss Option Income 2 - the new option selling Strategy that is currently showing a 53% annual rate of return. It's only been trading since June 1, but the behavior and shape of the curve are very encouraging. I talk about the history of this project, and why this new Strategy is ideal for capturing income from selling options on reversals in the direction of the market. I think it's a huge advancement. As always, I will continue to keep you updated on the development of these important trading assets.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

I have some additional, exciting news on the Throttle. Since it places many trades at once, it needs to maximize and retain the gains it makes on each "wave." A special new feature I just got from the Dev Team is enabling me to do precisely that. I am running tests now and expect to publish a video demonstrating it in the next few days. The goal, of course, is to re-deploy Throttle One on the live C2 account.

Jeff and the Team have been working every day to test and deploy additional Strategies to C2. The curve to the right is from Jeff's latest work on Natural Gas or NG. The energy markets are enormously volatile right now, and this Strategy clearly takes advantage of that. The Calmar Ratio above 150 is quite impressive. Today, they are hooking it up to C2 for testing early next week, after which it will be made available to Members. Jeff is also testing a new Strategy on Cotton. I will share more details in my video update.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

Impressive. I also discuss our work on Throttle One, which at this point mostly has to do with synchronizing Live Trading with our Simulations.

My Team made good progress there. Finally, we have deployed both the FAANG Strategy trading equities and the Option Income 2 Strategy, which sells both Puts and Calls under Market State Control. I will continue to update you this week as we have new information on the Strategies we are deploying to Collective 2.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

They are addressing this today so hopefully we can resume tomorrow (Tuesday), The screen shot in this post, is of VisualTrader running on Bitcoin using data from CoinBase. BTW, there is a lot of potential in Crypto Currencies! For another day. I'll continue to keep you informed.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

The C2 record was up 1.3%, which is great. But the discovery I made is even more significant. In this short video, I explain what happened and also talk about next steps. We are getting there!

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

"Results! Why, man, I have gotten a lot of results. I know several
thousand things that won't work." - Thomas A. Edison

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

but a problem in VisualTrader prevented the trades from reaching C2. I recorded the outcome of the Throttle Trade (in paper broker) and also took the opportunity to explain how I have been testing Throttle entry points. I hope you find it interesting. The bug I encountered was fixed this afternoon so we should be all set for Tuesday's market. Have a great Memorial Day Weekend and we'll pick it up next week!

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

I am ready to start trading Throttle One live on the site. On the video I talk about the challenges of Throttle One, but also how important this approach is to making steady profits. I also show a simulation I ran over the past 2 weeks, hitting that 1% a day goal.

We are deploying two new Strategies - one that trades both Puts and Calls to generate income in Up and Down Markets using ATM Market States, and another that trades the most liquid stocks on the NASDAQ to replace NQ Overnight. I want to applaud Jeff Drake for his hard work on these Strategies. They are really good.

Finally, I talk about what Don Frazeur is doing to test his unique Strategy, called HVKCH (you'll have to watch the video to find out what that means!) This is very exciting work and I want to applaud Don for taking the time to engage this. It could be huge.

So, that's a rough summary. I hope you enjoy the video, which is under 20 minutes long. Thanks for being part of The Inner Circle...

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

I had mentioned in the last update that I embarked on a new "Mach" series with my member friend Don Frazeur. Don is trading his Strategy into a private area of C2 in order to validate it; As you know, we had some really wild swings in the market last week! Since his Strategy trades 100% options, the swings penalized it. We need more time in live trading before opening it to the group. I have stopped trading Mach One pending the outcome of these tests.

The CL Strategy continues to do well. We are revising Option Income and NQ Overnight. For the Option Income Strategy, we added liquidity filters (like max bid-ask spread). As a result, in live trading (not back testing) a very large number of trades are being filtered out. We are looking at switch to a liquid list like the S&P 100 and will reset. NQ Overnight is on hold for the moment.

I showed a very exciting Options Strategy in my prior post, which Buys/Sells Put & Call options on the FAANG stocks, primarily at the Open to catch breakouts. When we started testing it live last Wednesday, it made 10% in just one day due to the large drop in the NASDAQ. Since this is the first time we have traded options in real time, we need to compare executions to Simulation for at least as week before opening it on the site.

I will provide more details in my coming video update.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

with a lot  of volatility, that should increase. I think I can improve its performance, but you will start seeing Throttle Trades coming through Monday. Thanks for your patience. Automating the Throttle has been one of the most challenging things I have ever done! 

I also started trading the new Mach One Strategy that I talked about last Friday. I must admit my performance wasn't that hot (and C2 didn't close 2 of my trades due to an error on my part). But there is hope! I have been working with member Don Frazeur on this for a few weeks, and HIS trades have been spectacular. My Good News today is that Don has agreed to help me get Mach One into shape - you'll be hearing more about that in coming weeks. If you ever meet Don, and I hope you do, you are going to find the nicest, most easy going person in the world. I am really enjoying working with him. Just want to say, "Thanks, Don for all your help!"

Futures trading continues to move ahead. One member wrote that the IC CL Strategy has already paid for his Inner Circle membership, which I was happy to hear. But more is in play. We now have the Micro CL Strategy running AND there is a new Options Strategy that is shown in this post. The back test results are so good, we decided to test it internally for a few days before activating it on the site. The Strategy made 2% today in our test. So, you can look forward to hearing more about that!

Next update soon. Thanks again for being part of the Inner Circle.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

In the webinar, Jeff talked about the new CL Micro Strategy and additional Trade Streams he is working on, including the new FAANG Strategy that trades the most active stocks in Real Time. I did a Throttle Demo and unveiled a new Swing Trading Strategy called IC Mach One. Click here for the C2 page for this new Strategy. There is also the new Crude Oil Micro Strategy. Click here for the link to IC CL Micro.

Our Strategies be going "Private" today, so please subscribe to any you want to follow by clicking the Subscribe button on the page (free for Inner Circle Members.) Our web department will be adding links to the I.C. site for easy access, but you need to subscribe before they are marked Private. As we add new Strategies in the future, we will open them in a "window" and notify Members so they can subscribe.

My Team and I remain dedicated to getting the best possible Trade Streams into C2 for our Inner Circle Members. I will continue to update you on Inner Circle News, and as additional trading assets come online...

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

Trade Stream for equities, which I will deploy this week. Due to the recent changes in behavior of the NASDAQ, we have decided to stop trading the NQ contract. A replacement will be available soon. Jeff and I have decided to host a live webinar to discuss what we are doing to further enhance the Inner Circle deliverables and results. The webinar will be held Friday, May 6, at 4p CDT. In the webinar we will explain our current work and plans, as well as answer any questions you may have.

Click here to register for the webinar.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs

provided some great additional insight that I will incorporate. Running Throttle in the live market has provided information about how to get through 'sideways' market behavior and hold the trade long enough to lock in a profit. I will continue to work towards Throttle Automation and share my findings as I go.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs