| Reviewed
by Howard L. Simons
Paralysis
by analysis is one of the most dangerous traps a trader
can fall into. Too often, accepted and reliable indicators
conflict with one another. By definition, one signal
will be right and the other will fail; the mental capital
expended in sorting the process out can undermine confidence
in system trading and lead to a complete loss of trading
discipline.
Wouldn't
it be nice, therefore, if we could simultaneously apply
a large number of technical indicators to a given data
set and have a computer poll the indicators for a composite
signal? OmniTrader does exactly that. The Windows-based
trading system design and testing package includes over
120 recognized trading methods.
The
installation procedure is straightforward, the documentation
is clear, the program executes quite quickly, and the
whole package is easy (and fun) to use. The software
comes with an hour-long video that introduces the product
and demonstrates most of its key features. Telephone
(non-toll-free) technical support is available from
during normal business hours (see Support).
The
user interface and output are complete and generally
self-explanatory to anyone who spends his day with toolbars,
drop-down menus, side windows and push-button icons.
The work and forethought in screen design shows. The
user can select various chart types and technical studies
to superimpose on them. The recommended trades are illustrated
with a variety of tags, each of which is hyperlinked
to a text box explaining why the signal was generated.
Another set of lines can be generated for trading stops,
both protective and profit-taking. An interactive "bomb-sight"
tool allows for easy data inspection. Finally, a report
writer generates trading histories.
OmniTrader
tests various trading systems and presents the user
with the most profitable combinations. The software
comes with two highly attractive features, a "Trading
Game," and a "Lab Mode." The Game is
a walk-forward simulator that allows a user to imitate
real-time trade idea testing. The Lab allows for a data
history to be divided into testing and validation samples.
The trading universe, or "focus list," to
be tested, as well as the trading strategy universe,
can both be edited.
OmniTrader's
capabilities are impressive; indeed, it is hard to think
of additional features that should be included in a
data analysis and testing program.
Futures
traders should be aware that while the software is shipped
with a futures trading module, the emphasis is on the
stock side. Many of the technical indicators, such as
up volume/down volume, are for equity traders. Systems
designed for equity market analysis do not translate
readily to commodities markets for several reasons,
most prominently because corporations change over time
and commodities do not: John Deere is a different entity
than it was 20 years ago, but 5,000 bushels of corn
is still 5,000 bushels of corn.
Second,
equities exist for the life of the underlying company,
while futures have a definite expiration. Third, equities
throw off a stream of income, while futures trade at
a basis to their underlying commodity that reflects
a cost of carry. Finally, equities have several powerful
institutional imperatives that back an overall up trend,
while commodities have no such underlying biases.
Of
course, OmniTrader can generate a whole family of trading
models, each designed to accommodate a specific underlying
security. Because the OmniTrader Lab makes designing
and optimizing systems so easy, and because it is human
nature to keep tweaking parameters up to and past the
point of perceived perfection, this one-model-per-situation
outcome becomes likely. Systems designers should see
the danger of "curve-fitting" and the resulting
non-robust methods rather immediately.
One
final note of caution: The video states several times
that the user is "the final filter." In other
words, a trader can invest considerable time and effort
in back testing and design, and then override the whole
thing on a hunch. How does this encourage discipline
and avoid paralysis by analysis?
For
beginning to intermediate level users, OmniTrader can
have tremendous value for those learning how systems
interact with the market. A user can see for himself
the various strengths and weaknesses of different types
of technical systems for different instruments under
different market conditions. As such, OmniTrader makes
an outstanding teaching and training tool.
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